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The Boise Turnkey Beat
February 2025
Real Estate Radar
January is always an interesting month for real estate, and 2025 has been no exception. Overall, the Boise metro market has been pretty steady for the last couple of years, which I am grateful for. As many of you know, some were predicting major equity losses in SW Idaho because of the unbelievable demand during covid lightening up, but thankfully, that has not happened and people continue to flock here. Even with continued demand, low inventory and vacancy rates, there are always seasonal challenges to deal with.
Traditionally, winter is a slower time. People nestle in with their families for the Holidays and it’s not necessarily a joy to move when it’s 35 degrees and rainy, which has a tangible impact on real estate demand. Year in and year out, we find that the best deals that we get for our clients are typically in the middle of the winter season. Sellers are waiting longer for offers, there are fewer showing and they are more likely to negotiate pricing and terms, which translates into more equity and (hopefully) better cash flow for our clients.
That being said, there is one interesting trend that I’ve noticed over the last decade or so. The first couple weeks of January are, without fail, incredibly busy and properties tend to move quickly and often see multiple offers. This year was no exception, January was absolutely gangbusters, especially for the first two weeks. While anecdotal, I attribute this to people setting New Year’s resolutions to buy property and come out swinging on January 2nd.
To my point- we had three listings in the fall that were priced correctly, had regular showings, inquiries and interest, but we didn’t have any acceptable offers over the course of about 90 days on any of them. We pulled all of those listings in October with the intent to re list on January first. We re listed those, basically in identical condition and at the same price as last fall, along with a few other new properties on January first.
In total, we listed 7 properties between Jan 1-2nd, all but one of them yielded multiple offers and either sold or are now pending for MORE than they were sitting for just 60 days prior. As a matter of fact, one of our listings had been on the market since last September, well over 100 days, and had multiple offers come in that first week of January. Our clients had WAY more leverage, made more money more quickly and a much less stressful experience simply by re listing right at the first of the year.
Keep in mind, this works in the opposite direction as well. We had a few buyer clients who came out of the gates swinging on some stale listings from the fall too. Unfortunately, many of them were fighting with other buyers at the same time. We missed out on a few good opportunities on properties that had been sitting for 60+ days- an eternity in our market- that suddenly had multiple offers and sold for over their asking price.
The lesson here- if you are looking to buy a property, that window between Halloween and New Year’s day is, nearly without fail, the BEST time of the year to get a deal. Sellers are tired, nervous and ready to end the year with having their property in escrow. But as a buyer, once January first rolls around, you’ve likely missed your chance.
As a seller- if you can hold off until after New Year’s day to list, you are likely to have a short, but productive window with some unexpected leverage. It can be a calculated risk, but you are likely to make up for any lost holding costs if you are ready in the fall but can wait until January first.
Now is the time to plan for NEXT year if you are thinking of buying or selling, but keep in mind that window seems to be short. After the second or third week of January, things tend to slow down a bit. It’s sort of like those people who show up determined at the gym during the first of the year and lose steam after a couple of weeks, but if you plan accordingly, you can make use of that magical little window of opportunity.
Happy Investing!
Real Estate Insights
There is a narrative among real estate investors that they can go it alone and just need someone to do the paperwork when it comes to negotiating deals. Most deals I work, I find that the most inexperienced party in a real estate transaction will end up losing 4-10% of the value of the home in the transaction because they don't know what they are doing.
This past week I helped two investor clients buy sfh for investments. One is a non-conforming duplex, the other is a flip with lot split-development opportunities. The non-conforming duplex was on the market for just $430k. A cash-flowing, large lot, alley loaded duplex that needed a new roof, painted and new floors. The agent listing the home has only done one deal. The house has been on the market for 26 days when we made an offer.
My client and I settled on an offer of $405k with all contingencies in place (inspection, appraisal, financing). That is a 5.8% discount on the price. The listing agent and seller did not counter on price and went under contract at the offered price. My client would have been willing to pay up to the whole listed price because the property will be worth ~$525k ARV.
The inexperience doesn't stop there. After the initial inspection we sent a response to the inspection asking for $21,500 in seller credits to cover the roof and furnace (both needed replaced). The listing agent did respond with a counter on this amount and offered $15,000 in seller credits. But my client would have moved forward with the deal for as little as $5-10k in concessions.
The seller will end up with $35,000 less because the agent did not understand the market or the process of selling. That is an 8% expense for inexperience.
An experienced agent would have worked with the seller to do the repairs before they sold, and captured the forced equity in the sale. If the seller would have spent $10k for a new roof, $8k in paint, $7k in flooring and $5k for a furnace they could have sold the house for $120k more. a $30k investment for $120k higher sales price. I've even seen agents that will finance repairs with a lien to maximize sales price for their seller.
Who you work with matters and will mean the difference between a quality BRRR that cashflows or a property that doesn't work.
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Property Management Corner
Churn, in property management, refers to the owner/client turnover rate, indicating how many clients choose to leave a property management company in a given period. It is an important metric for assessing client satisfaction and retention, resident satisfaction and future growth strategies and business planning. But, I have a confession to make; Boise TurnKey has never formally tracked this number! Before anyone calls the property management police, allow me to explain.
Truth be told, I had never heard the term “churn” used in property management up until I attended a national conference a few years back. I was casually mixing and mingling with a group of other managers from around the country when the topic of “key metrics” came up, and someone dropped the term and their percentage into the conversation. They spoke with such authority around it, and were reporting their numbers with pride. I felt like such a dummy needing to pump the breaks and ask for clarification. Of course, when a group of leaders in the field have to stop and accommodate your basic question, it’s accompanied with a lot of “bless your heart” and sideways glances as if you had broccoli growing from your ears. But that wasn’t the worst of the night!
As they explained how to calculate churn carefully to me, and fortified the discussion around how great their numbers were- I was able to easily share our company’s percentage. That’s when things got exceptionally awkward. Again, flashing my newbie credentials, I promptly said, “we’re at 0%.” After a few more nudges for clarification, “real numbers,” and eye rolls, I was able to confidently fire back this accuracy. That year in our business, we had experienced ZERO percent churn- good, bad, or neutral. I suppose I didn’t make any new friends that night.
Fast forward to 2025. We are keeping an eye on our churn, but it doesn’t demand much of our attention. Once per year (typically right around tax prep time, as we’re reviewing all financials to report to anyone we worked with the prior year), we pull all hard copy files, 1099s, and year-end reports. This year, I have a stack of 26 files on my desk that represent properties we no longer represent. Last year, in total, we managed 309 units. This means the raw churn rate that Boise TurnKey saw was 8%. National averages tend to trend around 25% for property management, so in relative terms- this number is one-third less than average. We’ve got a pretty rad rate! That said, this doesn’t REALLY tell the entire story. Of the 26 properties lost, 5 of them were considered “bad” churn, 8 were considered “neutral,” and 13 were considered “good” churn.
Good churn means that the client sold the property using our team to represent them. In these cases, we can work with residents to make the process less stressful, and usually relocate them to a new property. It’s a win-win for everyone, given the circumstances. Also, good churn means that we initiated ending the relationship with the client- we do this either for poor maintenance (not wanting to care for a property up to our standards), poor behavior (in one case, it was using the neighbors to bully the residents), or perhaps not following our contract guidelines. Our “good churn” rate was 4.2%!
Neutral churn could be a situation where the owner moved back into a property, sold the home using another agency, or was foreclosed on. This was 2.6%. Bad churn refers to a client letting us go. We had 5 properties out of 306 for 2024 that were considered bad churn, meaning only 1.6%. If 25% is truly the national average, we’re pretty darn excited to report these statistics…and maybe we will keep a closer eye on that metric for funsies!
Question: So what should we do with this information? It seems like we’re on a good path regarding churn, but our work is never done. How do we use the data to continuously improve our services and learn from these experiences?
Answer: For one, we’ve developed a screening process when vetting new clients. In order to ensure we’re both a good fit for each other’s management style and needs, we use a rubric to help us sort out the folks that may not want to properly care for their properties, or those that have an unhealthy attachment to the neighbors/etc. Two, we have embarked on a survey journey- be prepared to receive a handful of requests for feedback this year, everyone! From residents, clients, and vendors, we want to hear honest answers about our services in real time. We aim to keep satisfaction high, and are examining our survey results and comments weekly to ensure we’re keeping up with or exceeding folks’ expectations.
Three, this may seem obvious, but we’re reacting quickly to feedback we receive. If we received a less-than-average score on a maintenance survey, we’re diving into the issue to determine if something about our policy, communication, or procedure broke down. Was it a vendor that was rude to a tenant, or inflexible about a solution or scheduling? We seek to fix issues as quickly as possible, in order to prevent future disappointment.
I wish I could go back in time and remember the numbers that those conference folks were sharing with me! I imagine, now that I’ve cut my teeth by loosely monitoring churn, I could at least participate in the conversation without too much scoffing. I’m not sure I would be making many friends, still, but we’re resting our heads easy every night knowing that our very low churn rate indicates satisfaction and stability overall!
Meet the Team
The Management Magician
Molly brings decades of experience to the property management industry, having started her career in multifamily housing in Southern California. As the leader overseeing the day-to-day operations of our property management division, she combines her expertise and passion for real estate to ensure seamless management and high-quality service. Beyond her professional achievements, Molly is a proud mom and bonus mom to three wonderful daughters, balancing her career with a love for family and personal growth. In her off time she enjoys the mountains and anything rock n roll!!
The Boise TurnTea
Bikes and Beans: Where Coffee Meets Adventure
Hidden along Vista Ave in Boise, Bikes and Beans isn’t your average coffee shop. It’s where caffeine and adventure intersect, creating a space where you enjoy delicious coffee and interact with the community. From the moment you step inside, the aroma of freshly brewed coffee and the sounds of bikes being worked on, setting the tone for something unique.
This spot isn’t just about great coffee (though, spoiler: it’s fantastic). It’s about fostering connection. The baristas here don’t just know how to pour the perfect latte—they know your name, your order, and maybe even your favorite trail.
Speaking of coffee, they don’t cut corners. Bikes and Beans sources high-quality beans Counter Culture Coffee, ensuring that every cup and espresso drink is worth savoring. Whether you’re a straight-up black coffee drinker or someone who prefers a lavender latte, there’s something here for you.
What truly sets Bikes and Beans apart is its dual identity. It’s a coffee shop, yes, but also a full-service bike shop. Need a quick tune-up before hitting the Greenbelt? They’ve got you covered. Dreaming of a new bike? You’ll find expertise and enthusiasm here. It’s a reflection of Boise itself—outdoorsy, unpretentious, and fueled by good coffee.
At its core, Bikes and Beans is about community. It’s a space where everyone—from seasoned cyclists to casual coffee lovers—feels welcome. Whether you’re here to work, relax, or geek out over bike gear, you’ll leave with more than just a caffeine buzz.
Make Bikes and Beans your next pit stop for a hot beverage —and your gears
Out on the Town
2/5 Puzzling Adventures scavenger hunt
2/6 $3 Thursdays at the Boise Zoo
2/7 Wine Down Fridays
2/8 Watercolor Easy. landscape and sketch class
2/8 Out of my League Comedy Show
2/8 Daddy Daughter Date Night
2/11 Grilled Cheese Night with MELT
2/13 Galentine’s Pop-Up Market
2/14 Jim Jefferies Comedy
2/14 Lectures by Lushes: A Drunken Lecture Series
2/14 Dream Team Presents: Saturday Morning Cartoons
2/14 Farm to Heart: A Valentine’s Day Dinner
2/14 Romancing the Pen - Old Idaho Penitentiary
2/15 Idaho Dream Wedding Expo
2/15 Women’s Life Style Expo
2/20 Field to Fork Festival
2/22-23 Show Me Reptile Expo
2/22 Winter Wine Weekends: Artisan Cheese & Wine pairing market
2/28 Femme Von Follies’ Burlesque Bingo
In Other News
In honor of Valentine’s Day, I’m offering my boyfriend’s favorite recipe. He used to be a professional chef and I’m the oldest of four and learned to cook from my dad- we sometimes get competitive about recipes. We trade off on pot roast recipes (he does an AMAZING traditional pot roast with carrots and potatoes that melt in your mouth and I was raised to make a heart stopping Mississippi roast with pepperoncini and a whole stick of butter. Thanksgiving is something of an Olympic sport for us. For this recipe, however, he’s graciously hung up his hat and declared that this will be the cottage pie recipe that gets passed down, not his.
A few notes about this-
One - fresh herbs are a must. Buy the fresh rosemary and thyme. Sometimes it’s fine to use the dried spices, but this is not one of those times.
Two- People may also know this as "shepherd's pie”, which most culinary purists will tell you is only correct if it contains lamb. You can change out ground beef for ground lamb and it will come out just as well, but it will technically be a cottage pie. I don’t love the taste of lamb, so I always do lean ground beef.
Three- this is a teensy bit more laborious. Doing the prep work and cutting/measuring ingredients beforehand will be key to a smooth process.
You will need:
1 lb of ground beef
½ yellow onion
3-4 clove of minced garlic
2-3 carrots
3oz tomato paste
1 tablespoon flour
2 cups beef broth
1 cup frozen peas
4-6 russet potatoes
¼ cup milk
3 tablespoons butter
2 teaspoons garlic salt
½ teaspoon black pepper
- 1.Start with the mashed potatoes. Put a stock pot of water on high and bring to a rolling boil. When it comes to temperature, wash and peel your potatoes and cut them into quarters.
- 2.Once the water’s boiling, carefully drop the potatoes in and let sit for 10-15 minutes or until you can poke a fork into the potatoes with no resistance. You should not be able to fish these out and they should be extremely soft.
- 3.Drain the water (easiest way? Dump em in a strainer and transfer them back to the stock pot)
- 4.Add milk, butter, pepper, & salt (I tend to season simply for this dish since the stew will be the highlight) and mash together either with a potato masher or a hand mixer (my preference)
- 5.Adjust taste to preference and set aside
- 6. For the stew, start by finely dicing your onion and carrot, mincing your garlic, and warming your frozen peas. You’ll want these ready to quickly add once things get going
- 7. In a large skillet or saute pan, brown your ground beef or lamb on high heat and drain the fat
- 8. Add your finely diced onion, stir to incorporate, and let that come to temperature with the meat, about 2 minutes or until the edges of the onions start to get translucent
- 9. Add in your chopped carrot and combine- the end texture should be a little bit of resistance, but not raw- the peas and carrots add some variety in texture. Plus, you know…. it’s healthy. 1Anyway don’t overcook these. About 2-3 minutes.
- 10. Toss in your minced garlic, which will be the one time I say you can overdo it in this recipe. 2-3 cloves is perfect, which evens out to be about 3 teaspoons if you get the jar of minced garlic. Do a couple of stirs to incorporate and get to the temperature
- 11. Add in your tomato paste. I try to do this at the center of the pan so I can fold the meat in towards the paste, and it avoids the whole lump sticking to the spoon. The time it takes to evenly mix the paste with the meat and veg should be enough to bring it to temperature
- 12. It’s at this point things may start to stick and brown the the bottom of the pan. This is fine! To make the stew…stewy, we’re going to add that tablespoon of flour. Try to sprinkle it evenly over most of it, and then stir to combine until the raw flour smell goes away.
- 13.Next, add your two cups of beef broth and reduce from high to medium heat. Scrape your spoon along the bottom to make sure you get any burnt bits off (this process is called deglazing).
- 14. Preheat your oven to 350 degrees
- 15.Continue stirring every couple of minutes until you can drag your spoon through and it can leave a trail that is slllooowwwlyyy reclaimed by the stew. 15. Add your peas and stir, then let sit for a minute or two. This is usually the point where I like to taste test while the oven finishes heating up.
- 16. Put a pie plate onto a baking dish (to catch any overflow that may seep out) and transfer your stew from the pan, spreading evenly to the edges
- 17. Add your mashed potatoes on top- you can add dollops at a time and then level with a spoon, or pipe it on by cutting the corner of a gallon ziploc bag. This second method provides an even coverage by piping in a spiral towards the center, but you can also achieve an equally tasty effect by adding a few strategically placed gobs and then evenly spreading. All the piping method does is ensure equal potato pressure is placed on the stew as you assemble the pie. It’s worth noting you may have some mashed potato left over, which is fine. You don’t have to put all of it on your pie, and if you prefer less potato, set it aside and refrigerate for another meal! I won’t blame you- the stew is the star of this show.
- 18. Finally, gently comb a fork over the mashed potato coating in a crosshatch pattern, enough to leave some deep crevasses, but not so deep that you uncover the stew. As this bakes, the nooks, and crannies will brown and crispen into a little bit of a crunchy shell
- 19. Gently tuck your assembled pie into your oven (which should be preheated by now) and bake for 25 minutes.
- 20.Let stand for about 5 minutes, and carve up to enjoy.